Despite finishing third in Group C and facing a difficult final matchup against the Benin Republic in Uyo at 5 p.m. today, the Nigerian Super Eagles may still have a chance to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Following Eritrea’s departure from Group E, the Confederation of African Football (CAF) and FIFA adopted a significant rule change to correct inequalities in the qualification process, giving the Super Eagles new hope.
The choice could slightly favor Nigeria because it influences the selection of the top four group runners-up.
The updated rule states that when comparing the second-placed teams across the nine qualification groups, points earned against the lowest-ranked club in each group will no longer be taken into account. CAF clarified that the change is intended to maintain equity because withdrawals have left some groups with fewer teams.
In a circular dated March 14, 2025, CAF Director of Competitions Samson Adamu acknowledged the change, stating that it was required to “maintain sporting integrity and ensure balanced comparison” among all sides. “This modification is necessary to ensure equity in a competition structure impacted by unanticipated team withdrawals,” Adamu said.
According to Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Preliminary Competition Regulations, the modification has the potential to completely alter the playoff landscape.
The Impact of the Rule Change on Nigeria
Under the new structure, a number of clubs are expected to fall behind. Burkina Faso, Gabon, DR Congo, and Madagascar will lose the six points they earned from their respective bottom-place opponents.
Nigeria, who are now at the bottom of Group C and only managed two points against Zimbabwe, may, however, benefit. Cameroon might also lose four points, which would put Nigeria in the upper echelons of the second-place standings.
According to the updated estimates, Burkina Faso (15 points, fixtures finished) and Gabon (16 points) are in the lead for the four playoff spots. Niger (15 points, fixtures completed), Cameroon (14 points), DR Congo (13 points), Uganda (12 points), and Nigeria (12 points, +3 goal difference) are vying for the final two spots.
The Super Eagles’ Requirements
If South Africa wins their match and the Super Eagles defeat Benin Republic by a slim 1-0 or any two-goal margin, Nigeria would rise to 15 points, which would put them among the top two-place teams.
However, the outcome ultimately depends on the outcomes of other crucial matches throughout the continent:
Niger can only wait now that their matches are over.
Cameroon is anticipated to win their match against Angola.
The DR Congo are heavy favorites when they play Sudan at home.
Uganda travels to Algeria, where it seems unlikely that they will win.
Two Paths the Super Eagles Could Take
1. Direct Qualification (as Group Winners): South Africa must lose or tie their match against Rwanda, and Nigeria must defeat Benin Republic by at least two goals (without giving up) in order to win Group C entirely.
2. Playoff Qualification (as one of the top runners-up): The Super Eagles will not win Group C if South Africa defeats Rwanda and Nigeria defeats Benin Republic. However, based on other outcomes, they might still be able to make it through the CAF playoff ranking of the second-place clubs.
Nigeria’s future currently depends on their success in Yaoundé, Kinshasa, and Algiers in addition to Uyo.
The World Cup dream might be preserved with a convincing victory tonight. The Super Eagles might miss successive tournaments for the first time since 1994 if they don’t achieve it.
