The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, OPEC+, set output targets for the month, but Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela reported declines in crude oil production in October.
Despite prior commitments to increase supply, OPEC’s total output increased by barely 30,000 barrels per day in October, a stark contrast to the 330,000 bpd increase noted in September, according to a Reuters report on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s crude production, which ranged from 1.3 million to 1.4 million barrels per day from January to June 2025, briefly increased to 1.5 million bpd in July before falling back to 1.4 million bpd in August and 1.3 million bpd in September, according to data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for October, which Channels Television was able to obtain.
The “crisis between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers as well as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria” was blamed by Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, for the drop in production.
Wednesday saw a decline in oil prices as investors reevaluated supply dynamics in the face of weakening global markets and a stronger US dollar.
By 5:08 a.m. WAT, Brent crude futures had dropped by 6 cents (0.1%) to $64.38 per barrel, nearly reaching a two-week low. The OPEC Basket lost 0.26 cents (0.39%) to $66.72 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 10 cents (0.17%) to $60.46.
In a client note cited by Reuters, ANZ analysts said, “The risk-off tone across markets saw investors exit energy markets.”
According to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, “crude oil is trading lower… as risk sentiment shifted sharply negative, boosting the safe haven U.S. dollar, both of which weighed on the crude oil price.”
After the American Petroleum Institute revealed an increase in U.S. oil stocks for the week ending October 31, there was more pressure.
Regarding supplies, OPEC+ declared in December that it would increase output by 137,000 barrels per day, but it also stated that it would halt additional increases in the first quarter of 2026.
The suspension was “unlikely to offer meaningful support to November and December prices,” according to LSEG analysts.
