The daily currency of democratic life is trust. Institutions lose weight when it drains away, yet they may retain their names and seals. The latest Chatham House/NBS findings depict a strained social contract rather than just providing another set of depressing statistics. Nearly 50% of Nigerian citizens claim to “greatly distrust” the police. Approximately one-third of the populace has a strong mistrust in the federal government and the president. State legislators, municipal governments, and courts that mean the judiciary all receive low marks. Beneath these statistics is a telling paradox: although most people think that power is more important in their communities than honesty, a much greater percentage nevertheless feel horrible when others are taken advantage of. Stated differently, Nigerians have lost faith that integrity is rewarded, but they have not lost their moral compass.
The silent framework that keeps a country together is trust. When it deteriorates, as it has in Nigeria, it does more than just damage people’s reputations; it also destroys the institutions that are supposed to serve, protect, and stabilize society. Ministries become into echo chambers rather than policymaking engines, courts into places of suspicion rather than justice, and police into places of fear rather than safety. “Dearth of Integrity in Public Life” (November 2023), “Greed, Ethics, and Public Service in Nigeria” (January 2024), “Trust and Economic Recovery” (November 2024), “Nigeria Decides 2023: Campaign Promises and the Issue of Trust” (January 2023), and “Accountability Deficit and the Transparency Question” (September 2023) are some of the previous columns that have cautioned about this drift. The main takeaway is straightforward: without trust, government cannot operate efficiently.
This has significant ramifications for the presidency. The presidency is more than just an office in every constitutional democracy; it is a representation of sovereignty and the point at which the people believe that the government has legitimate power. As confidence in that symbol declines, so does the government’s ability to enforce the law, ensure compliance, and keep the peace. Every reform is met with resistance, mistrust, and delays; the gap between decree and delivery widens; and the cost of governance rises. Even if a president may still hold official authority, the unofficial agreement that underpins power becomes brittle. The state’s ability to act in the public good without constant opposition or skepticism is at risk, not just popularity ratings. People start living their lives outside of the state—through private security, unofficial payments, and parallel services—if the center is unable to provide a credible case for justice and outcomes.
The report’s finding that there is almost universal agreement that political and economic power increasingly take precedence above integrity and constitutionally protected rights is equally concerning. Democracy turns into performance when power overrides principle. People lower their expectations and accept corruption as inevitable and impunity as the norm. This weakens societal cohesiveness over time as people turn to private coping mechanisms including informal economies, ethnic solidarity, and transactional shortcuts because official institutions frequently come seem as aloof, capricious, or predatory.
There are costs to the economy as well. In addition to being immoral, corruption is an efficiency tax that gets worse every day. It takes funds away from roads, clinics, and classrooms. It makes doing business more expensive and erodes the rule of law. The headline for Nigeria GDP encourages comparisons with the largest countries in Africa, while GDP per capita provides a distinct picture of household prosperity. It is no accident that a nation with persistent poverty levels also faces service-delivery disparities. Citizens often become disengaged when they see budgets with unclear results. They legitimately wonder, “Where does the money go?” when urged to expand the tax base. You cannot raise one while ignoring the other; trust and tax morale are like twins.
It took time for the trust deficit to become apparent. For 25 years, Nigerians have been subjected to anti-corruption initiatives whose headlines frequently outstripped their actual outcomes. Too often, party loyalty has taken precedence over the general welfare; selective enforcement has too frequently taken the place of impartial justice; and institutional incentives have rewarded surviving in a dysfunctional system rather than bringing about its change. People hear the appropriate words, but they have learnt to wait for evidence before believing them, which leads to reform fatigue. Every unmet promise subtly increases the “cost of honesty”—the possibility that following the law makes one poorer, slower, and excluded—while decreasing the “cost of corruption”—the perception that misconduct is commonplace, lucrative, and seldom penalized.
Mallam Lanre Issa-Onilu, National Orientation Agency Director General
When official statements claim that corruption has been eradicated but everyday experiences and independent evidence show otherwise, the gap between declarations and reality widens. Leaders establish public trust by proving the link between income and results and by promoting outside validation, rather than by claiming that current sufferings will result in future benefits. Being humble is not a sign of a weak leader; rather, it is a prerequisite for teamwork during difficult circumstances. In contrast to triumphant assertions that do not align with reality, a straightforward admission—“we are falling short here; here is what we will do by these dates; and here is how you can check”—earns more trust.
However, the Chatham House project also reveals a hidden strength: civic preparedness. According to almost half of the respondents, their communities are prepared to keep an eye on public spending on development initiatives. This is not a trivial matter. Successful nations that have eradicated corruption have done so by establishing replicable, citizen-centered systems that make wrongdoing more difficult, expensive, and dangerous rather than relying solely on the will of the elite. Nigeria has the chance to move from exhortation to architecture by giving communities the authority to monitor projects, disclose contracts, and establish avenues for grievances to be addressed. How might a believable reset appear?
Rebuilding trust is a national priority, and the president should acknowledge this right away. This is about alignment, not about assigning responsibility. There should be a brief, time-bound action plan with deadlines, owners, and visible benchmarks. This might entail deploying body-worn cameras in high-risk areas, creating independent complaint procedures that report their findings, and releasing yearly integrity reports that highlight patterns and suggest corrective measures. Make open contracting the norm for all MDAs in procurement, and hold off on awarding large contracts until the beneficial ownership data is comprehensive and accessible to the public. Go beyond catchphrases when it comes to whistleblowing: implement strong safeguards, ensure anonymity, and show that serious tips result in quantifiable enforcement.
Fair and quantifiable policing is essential. Rather than in policy documents, trust in the police is frequently developed on the side of the road. Establish a separate complaints procedure with the authority to look into the matter, publish the results, and suggest sanctions, then carry them out. Install body-worn cameras in strategic locations with explicit guidelines for their use, storage, and public release following significant events. Release an integrity report every year that details stop-and-search statistics by location, disciplinary measures taken, and complaints by kind and outcome. Learn about the science of procedural fairness, which demonstrates that individuals comply with procedures that are courteous and transparent, even when the results are unfavorable. In order to make effective policing safer and more fulfilling than rent-seeking, combine this with officer protections and incentives.
Reduce wait times by digitizing justice. Delays in justice equate to a lack of trust. The number of cases filed, the typical processing time, and their results must all be clearly and simply presented in order for case tracking to be effective. Provide quarterly performance reports and set up service-levy agreements for the crucial phases of filing, arraignment, evidence disclosure, and trial scheduling. Assign specialized judges and establish stringent deadlines for trials involving serious crimes and corruption.
Understand that the social compact is based on facts. The government wants to increase the size of the tax base. Unless people see their taxes being used to fund infrastructure and services in their communities, that won’t happen on a large scale. Establish a monthly “Money to Services” ledger that documents, project by project, how income is converted into results, such as classroom delivery, operational water systems, hospital wards, and roads that are safe to drive on during the rainy season.
Naturally, reform is a routine rather than a press announcement or propaganda. It requires measurements to remain trustworthy. Every quarter, release a brief national scorecard that shows the percentage of people who “strongly trust” the federal government, the police, and the president (along with a goal to increase this figure by a specific number of percentage points in the next 12 to 18 months).
Nothing about this will be easy. Those who stand to gain from the current balance will oppose it. After hearing such promises, citizens will grow weary of reform. Disinformation efforts will be launched with the intention of obscuring victories and exaggerating defeats. Additionally, tests will be conducted to resolve economic shocks. Quick wins must be sequenced (particularly in frontline services), reform champions must be protected, and communication must be rhythmic and honest in order to mitigate these dangers.
In the end, trust is logical. People trust systems because they operate consistently and equitably, not because they are commanded to. The values dilemma at Chatham House makes it very evident that Nigerians still have a strong desire for justice. The expectation that honesty is inexpensive is what they have lost. The difficult task ahead is to rebuild that expectation. It entails raising the price of corruption and lowering the price of honesty. Integrity as infrastructure will replace anti-corruption as theater. Additionally, it necessitates a different approach from leadership, one that views legitimacy as a resource that is renewed every day by behavior rather than as inherited authority.
Trust will follow—not as sentiment, but as common sense—if we can make taxes clearly become services, make justice quantifiably faster and more equitable, and make wrongdoing consistently costly. The way out of cynicism is for the state to act in ways that the people can observe, test, and trust. And when trust starts to grow again, it will do so as something more resilient than hope—confidence gained via organizations that function normally in Nigerian society. The task ahead is to make service more rewarding than cynicism and integrity less expensive than impunity so that our institutions serve the public interest rather than acting as strongholds of power.
