The daily currency of democratic life is trust. Institutions may retain their names and seals when it disappears, but they become weaker. The latest Chatham House/NBS studies highlight a strained social contract rather than just providing another set of depressing statistics. Nearly 50% of Nigerians claim to “greatly distrust” the police. Approximately one-third of people have serious mistrust of the federal government and the president. State lawmakers, local councils, and courts—that is, the judiciary—also receive low scores. Beneath these statistics is a striking paradox: although most people think that power is more important than honesty in their societies, a much higher percentage nonetheless feels horrible when others are taken advantage of. To put it another way, Nigerians have lost faith that integrity is rewarded, but they have not lost their moral compass.
The silent building block that unites a country is trust. Not only does it damage reputations when it erodes, as it did in Nigeria, but it also destroys the very institutions that are supposed to serve, protect, and stabilize society. Ministries become echo chambers rather than policy engines, courts become places of suspicion rather than justice, and the police become a source of terror rather than security. “Dearth of Integrity in Public Life” (November 2023), “Greed, Ethics, and Public Service in Nigeria” (January 2024), “Trust and Economic Recovery” (November 2024), “Nigeria Decides 2023: Campaign Promises and the Issue of Trust” (January 2023), and “Accountability Deficit and the Transparency Question” (September 2023) have all issued warnings regarding this tendency. The main point is straightforward: without trust, government cannot operate efficiently.
The presidency will be significantly impacted by this. The presidency is more than just a position in any constitutional democracy; it is a representation of sovereignty and the point at which citizens regard the power to rule as legitimate. The ease with which the government can ensure compliance, enforce the law, and uphold order diminishes when trust in that sign declines. Every change encounters resistance, distrust, and delay; the gap between decree and performance grows; and the cost of governance rises. Formal power may still be in the hands of a president, but the informal consent that sustains power becomes brittle. The state’s ability to act in the public interest without constant opposition or uncertainty is at risk, not merely popularity ratings. People start conducting their lives outside of the state through private security, unofficial payments, and parallel services if the center is unable to persuasively demonstrate fairness and outcomes.
Director General of the National Orientation Agency, Lanre Issa Onilu
The report’s discovery of a near-unanimity that political and economic power now take precedence above integrity and rights guaranteed by the constitution is equally concerning. Democracy turns into performance when power takes precedence over principle. People lower their expectations and accept corruption as inevitable and impunity as the norm. Because governmental institutions frequently seem aloof, capricious, or predatory, people eventually turn to private coping mechanisms like ethnic solidarity, informal economies, and transactional shortcuts, which weakens social cohesion.
There is a cost to the economy as well. Corruption is not only a moral transgression but also a daily efficiency tax. It takes funds away from roads, clinics, and classrooms. It increases the expense of doing business and erodes the rule of law. Nigeria’s headline While GDP encourages comparisons with the largest countries in Africa, GDP per capita reveals a contrasting picture of household prosperity. It is no accident that a nation that struggles with gaps in service delivery also has persistently high rates of poverty. People tend to become disengaged when they see budgets with unclear goals. They raise the reasonable question, “Where does the money go?” when urged to increase the tax base. Raising one while ignoring the other is impossible since trust and tax morale are twins.
The lack of trust did not show up right away. For 25 years, Nigerians have had to put up with anti-corruption programs that frequently outpaced their outcomes. Too often, the public interest has been subordinated to party allegiance, impartial justice has been substituted by selective enforcement, and institutional incentives have rewarded survival inside a flawed system rather than changing it. Reform fatigue is the result: people hear the correct words, but they’ve learned to hold off on believing until they see evidence. Every broken promise lowers the “cost of corruption,” which is the perception that misbehavior is common, profitable, and never punished, while subtly increasing the “cost of honesty,” which is the possibility that following the rules makes one poorer, slower, and excluded.
When official statements claim that corruption has been eradicated while independent evidence and everyday experiences show otherwise, the gap between declarations and reality widens. Leaders foster public trust by explicitly illustrating the relationship between income and outcomes and by encouraging external validation, rather than by maintaining that current sufferings will result in future advantages. Being humble is a prerequisite for teamwork during difficult times, not a sign of weakness in leadership. A straightforward acknowledgement, such as “we are falling short here; here is what we will do by these dates; and here is how you can check,” gains more credibility than arrogant assertions that don’t align with reality.
However, the Chatham House project also reveals a silent strength: civic preparedness. According to nearly half of the respondents, their communities are prepared to keep an eye on public spending on development initiatives. This is not insignificant. Successful nations have developed repeatable, citizen-centered institutions that make wrongdoing more difficult, expensive, and dangerous rather than relying just on elite willpower. Nigeria has the chance to move from exhortation to architecture by giving communities the ability to monitor projects, disclose contracts, and establish avenues for grievances to be addressed. How would a legitimate reset appear?
The president should immediately acknowledge that rebuilding trust is a national priority and that it is currently low. This is about alignment, not blame. The next step should be a brief, time-bound action plan with dates, owners, and public milestones. This may include implementing body-worn cameras in high-risk areas, setting up independent complaints procedures that make their findings public, and releasing yearly integrity reports that highlight problems and suggest solutions. Make open contracting the default for all MDAs in procurement, and hold off on awarding large contracts until the beneficial ownership data is complete and accessible to the public. Go beyond catchphrases when it comes to whistleblowing: implement strong safeguards, ensure anonymity, and show that significant tips result in quantifiable enforcement.
Fair and quantifiable policing is essential. Rather than in policy documents, trust in the police is frequently developed at the side of the road. Establish an impartial complaints procedure with the authority to look into complaints, publish results, and suggest penalties—then carry them out. Install body-worn cameras in hotspots and establish explicit guidelines for their use, storage, and public dissemination following serious occurrences. Release an annual integrity report that includes data on stop-and-searches by location, disciplinary actions taken, and complaints by type and outcome. Learn about procedural fairness, the science that demonstrates that when procedures are courteous and open, individuals comply even when the results are unfavorable. Combine this with incentives and protections for officers to make effective policing safer and more fulfilling than rent-seeking.
Reduce wait times by digitizing justice. When justice is postponed, confidence is betrayed. Effective case tracking is essential and must clearly display, in plain language, the quantity of cases filed, the average processing time, and their results. Provide quarterly performance reports and establish service-level agreements for important phases, such as filing, arraignment, evidence disclosure, and trial scheduling. Prioritize cases involving violent crimes and corruption by assigning specialized judges and establishing stringent deadlines.
Acknowledge that evidence is the foundation of the social compact. The goal of the government is to increase the revenue base. That won’t occur on a large scale unless residents witness taxes being converted into infrastructure and services in their communities. Establish a monthly “Money to Services” ledger that tracks, project by project, how revenue translates into results, such as the delivery of classrooms, the operation of water schemes, the equipping of hospital wards, and the ability to drive on roads during the wet season.
Naturally, reform is a routine rather than a press announcement or propaganda. Metrics are necessary for it to remain credible. Each quarter, publish a brief national scorecard that shows the percentage of people who “strongly trust” the federal government, the police, and the president (with a goal to increase this by a specific amount of percentage points within 12–18 months).
There won’t be any pain involved. Those who profit from the current equilibrium will oppose it. Citizens who have heard numerous promises will become weary of reform. There will be misinformation tactics aimed at obscuring victories and magnifying defeats. Additionally, there will be test-resolution economic shocks. Sequencing rapid wins (particularly in frontline services), safeguarding reform advocates, and communicating with rhythm and candor are all necessary to mitigate these dangers.
In the end, trust is logical. People trust because systems act predictably and fairly, not because they are taught to. The values dilemma of Chatham House amply illustrates that Nigerians are still hungry for justice. The belief that honesty is inexpensive is what they have lost. It will take a lot of work to rebuild that expectation. It implies raising the price of corruption and lowering the price of honesty. It entails switching from integrity as infrastructure to anti-corruption as theater. Additionally, it necessitates a different approach from leadership, one that views legitimacy as a resource that is constantly acquired via behavior rather than as inherited power.
Trust will follow—not as sentiment, but as reason—if we can make taxes clearly become services, make justice measurably faster and more equitable, and make wrongdoing consistently costly. A state that operates in ways that citizens can observe, test, and trust is the route out of cynicism. And when trust starts to reappear, it will do so as something more resilient than optimism—confidence gained by organizations that operate in the everyday rhythm of Nigerian life without drama. In order for our institutions to serve as tools of the common good rather than as strongholds of power, the task ahead is to make integrity more affordable than impunity and service more satisfying than cynicism.
