According to new predictions made by the Opta Supercomputer prior to the competition, the Nigerian Super Eagles have a meager 7.3% probability of winning the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in 2025.
As the continent gets ready for the start of AFCON 2025 this weekend in Morocco, the data-driven prognosis, released on December 15, puts the Super Eagles outside of the top three favorites. The tournament will take place in a number of Moroccan cities and run until January 18, 2026.
According to Opta’s estimate, Morocco, the host country, has the best chance of winning the title. Due to their depth throughout the team, home advantage, and previous success, the Atlas Lions have a 29.9% chance of winning the championship.
Egypt are rated as the second most likely winners, with the Pharaohs assigned a 12.4 per cent chance. Senegal follows closely behind on 12.3 per cent.
Algeria and Nigeria complete the top five nations most likely to win AFCON 2025. Algeria have been given a 12 per cent chance, while the Super Eagles trail slightly behind with a 7.3 per cent probability of emerging champions.
The Super Eagles head into the tournament still carrying memories of the last edition, where they finished runners-up after losing 2-1 to the Ivory Coast in the final. The Ivorians, who are the defending champions, are placed behind Nigeria in the latest projections, alongside Tunisia, Mali, Cameroon and South Africa.
